Gameweek 1 recommendation
Ranked by season-long value, re-ranked by lives-aware survival probability. Generated on demand — not committed to the repo.
Arsenal vs Coventry City83%
Best season-long value: win prob 83% now, and using Arsenal here (rather than saving it) is optimal across the rest of the remaining fixture list.
8-week survival 95% · log-value -8.07
Man City vs Bournemouth73%
Safer given 3 life/lives remaining: 73% win prob now, 97% estimated probability of surviving the next 8 gameweeks with this plan (vs. the higher-value pick above).
8-week survival 97% · log-value -8.20
Man United @ Hull City68%
8-week survival 93% · log-value -8.18
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland31%
8-week survival 85% · log-value -8.35
Brentford vs Tottenham48%
8-week survival 89% · log-value -8.38